Climate change | Port Phillip & Western Port Regional Catchment Strategy

A changing climate

The latest scientific report on climate change makes sobering reading. It’s now certain that human influence has warmed our planet at a rate unprecedented in at least 2,000 years.

It will be difficult now for the world to meet the goal to limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C. Instead, preventing global average temperatures increasing beyond 2°C above pre-industrial levels will require immediate and comprehensive action. The intensity and frequency of extreme weather will increase under all feasible scenarios. In Australia, the triggers to the 2019-20 bushfires were made more likely and more severe by climate change.

These impacts are being felt across our region too. The Port Phillip & Western Port region’s climate is becoming warmer, drier, more extreme and less predictable:

The average temperature has risen more than 1 degree over the past century
There are more hot days and heatwaves
Droughts and bushfires have become more frequent and severe
Average rainfall has fallen
Waterway flow volumes and timing have changed
Damaging winds, hail and flash flooding have become more frequent and severe
Sea levels have risen approximately 225 millimetres since 1880
Oceans have become warmer and more acidic
Native plants and animals are being adversely affected by climate while some pest plants and animals thrive.

These changes threaten to disrupt our regional economies, especially primary industries dependant on soils, weather, water, pest and disease control. Climate change poses new risks to water and energy supplies, community health and wellbeing. Extreme weather could overwhelm emergency and crisis responses.

Climate change is likely to increase and complicate existing environmental stresses in unpredictable ways. Helping the environment be resilient to these changes means doing a lot more of what we do now – protect the diversity of life, stop stealing nature’s living space and reduce the threats and pressures humans have brought to species and habitats.

The impacts of climate change are already being felt in the Port Phillip and Western Port region.

Average rainfall has fallen and average annual temperatures have risen.

Future sea level rise and storm surges threaten coastal environments and infrastructure.

The Victorian Government is committed to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

A Victorian Climate Change Strategy is in place.

A community-led Regional Climate Change Adaption Strategy for Greater Melbourne will guide local action.

Policy and planning

Australia is party to the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement came into force in 2016. It builds on ongoing international efforts to address climate change under the:

The Paris Agreement aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by:

holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels
pursuing efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C

However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) August 2021 report states it will be difficult now for the world to meet the goal to limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C.

At the national level, the Australian Government’s Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources develop and administer the Government’s domestic actions to reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions and meet obligations under the Paris Agreement.

In Victoria, the Climate Change Act 2017 provides a legislative foundation to manage climate change risks, maximise the opportunities that arise from decisive action, and drive our transition to a climate resilient community and economy.

Climate action has two major themes:

Mitigation – work to reduce atmospheric carbon emissions.
Adaptation – building resilience to extreme weather and other consequences of climate change so that industries, communities and environments continue to function and meet our needs.

The Climate Change Act 2017 establishes the Victorian Government mitigation target to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Adaptation action is guided at State level by Victoria’s Climate Change Framework and Victoria’s Climate Change Strategy. Adaptation Action Plans have been in place from 2022 for seven key systems of Victoria’s environment and economy – Built Environment, Education and Training, Health and Human Services, Natural Environment, Primary Production, Transport and the Water Cycle. An overview of actions is available at Victorian Government action on climate change.

The former Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (now Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action) also partnered with CSIRO’s Climate Science Centre to prepare information to support adaptation planning – Victorian Climate Projections 2019. These provide modelled predictions for average and extreme temperature and rainfall, relative humidity and evaporation to 2090 for moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The Greater Melbourne Climate Projections 2019 provides this information for the Port Phillip & Western Port region.

Climate predictions in figures and maps to support adaptation action for land, water and nature conservation is provided by Climate Ready Natural Resource Management Planning in Victoria. This website also provides information focused on the Port Phillip & Western Port region.

Regional-scale planning is underway to develop a Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Greater Melbourne. Specific planning for the water sector has also been undertaken in the Pilot Water Sector Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan.

Climate change mitigation and adaptation are prominent themes in Plan Melbourne, a strategic plan to guide sustainable growth across the Greater Melbourne area for the next 35 years. Plan Melbourne’s Outcome 6 sets directions for a low-carbon city to help Victoria achieve its target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Its adaptation directions embrace other public policies and strategy for water conservation, urban cooling and greening, open space and metropolitan parks, urban nature, coastal and waterway conservation.

Planning and investment for water infrastructure and use is also underway which will respond to climate change. A Central and Gippsland Region Sustainable Water Strategy has been prepared and focuses on water conservation and efficient use, greater use of recycled water and stormwater, better water-sharing arrangements and improving how water entitlements and trade can be used to better manage risks. Opportunities for the use of recycled water and stormwater are also being explored as part of the Integrated Water Management planning for each of the Westernport, Dandenong, Yarra, Maribyrnong and Werribee catchments.

Adaptation through urban cooling is also being advanced through ‘Living Melbourne: Our Metropolitan Urban Forest’. This strategy is endorsed by 32 metropolitan councils. It describes actions to improve city resilience, biodiversity and urban cooling and greening with ambitious goals for enhanced and new tree and shrub cover.

At the municipal level, many councils are also integrating climate change mitigation and adaptation into their decision-making and are strongly advocating for climate action. Some Councils have made emissions reduction pledges and the following have formally declared a ‘climate emergency‘:

Bass Coast Shire Council
Cardinia Shire Council
Mornington Peninsula Shire Council
Frankston City Council
City of Greater Dandenong
Kingston City Council
Bayside City Council
City of Port Phillip

Glen Eira City Council
City of Stonnington
Darebin City Council
Yarra City Council
Moreland City Council
Maribyrnong City Council
City of Melbourne
Moonee Valley City Council

Banyule City Council
Manningham City Council
Brimbank City Council
Yarra Ranges Shire Council
Macedon Ranges Shire Council
Hobsons Bay City Council
City of Greater Geelong
Municipal Association of Victoria

This region’s current climate and projected changes

The Port Phillip and Western Port region has mild to warm summers with an average maximum temperature of around 22 to 24°C near the coast and in the ranges to the east, and 25 to 27°C in the Melbourne area and further inland. In winter, average maximum temperatures are mostly around 12 to 14°C and frosts occur inland, but are rare near the coast and in inner urban areas. On average, annual rainfall across the region is approximately 860mm, but is less than 600 mm to the west of Melbourne and more than 1400 mm in the Dandenong Ranges.

Our climate in Victoria has already warmed by more than 1°C over the past 100 years. We are already experiencing hotter days, more frequent and intense bushfires and accompanying smoke, more intense storms and flooding as well as sea level rise. The disruption caused by these impacts is already affecting homes, businesses and the natural environment. Temperature rise above 1.5°C will lead to major and irreversible damage to ecosystems, putting our region’s coveted liveability in danger.

Experiencing climate change

Heatwaves
Our region is experiencing hotter days. We currently average 11 days greater than 35 degrees and by 2050 we will experience an average of between 16 and 21 days greater than 35 degrees. We can also expect an unprecedented 50 degree day in metropolitan Melbourne within decades. Heatwaves are responsible for more deaths each year than any other type of disaster, including bushfires.

Flooding and sea level rise
Our region will experience more severe rainfall events, increasing the likelihood of flooding and storm surge. By 2050 sea levels will rise by 24 cm on 1990s levels. In 2018 Melbourne experienced a 1 in 1,000 year rainfall event with 50 mm of rain falling in 15 minutes. This resulted in flash flooding, train lines suspended and power outages across the city.

Bushfires and air quality
Bushfire events will be more frequent and intense. More than 1 billion native animals were killed during the 2020 bushfires which ravaged more than 12 billion hectares along Australia’s east coast. Victoria has had longer fire seasons since the mid-1990s and fire days are projected to increase by 42 per cent per year in Melbourne by 2050. In January 2020, Melbourne’s air quality was the worst in the world due to smoke from bushfires.

Droughts
By 2050, there will be 20 per cent less rainfall during spring in our region. This means more severe conditions in the lead up to the summer bushfire season. The millennium drought and heat stress have accelerated the decline of the city’s current tree population. In 2019, Melbourne had 374 mm rainfall, down 40 per cent on our 630 mm average.

Our plants and animals
Climate change is disrupting natural cycles and habitat in our parks and gardens. Temperature increases mean we could lose 35 per cent of the city’s trees in the next 20 years. Elms and some species of indigenous eucalypts won’t survive. Our region is home to many threatened species including the Powerful Owl, Grey-headed Flying Fox and the Swift Parrot which rely on canopy trees for habitat.

Our economy
Climate change will cost our local economy $12.6 billion by 2050 and impact agriculture, tourism, insurance and finance. The total cost of the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires was estimated at $4.4 billion.

Our communities
There are health and social impacts from floods, bushfires, extreme heat and storms, especially for our region’s most vulnerable residents. Older people, young children, those with existing medical conditions and people who cannot afford air conditioning are at risk during extreme heat. During the heatwave preceding Black Saturday in 2009, 374 people died due to heat-related illness.

The former Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (now Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action) commissioned Spatial Vision to analyse and report on the vulnerability of Victoria’s biodiversity/native vegetation to climate change. The report, produced in 2021, presents modelling at regional scale for temperature and rainfall change under two scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 and 4.5 – often referred to as RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). In simple terms, RCP 8.5 is what might be expected if the current trajectory for climate change mitigation is continued into the future, and RCP 4.5 is what might be achieved if increased mitigation is put in place and global emissions are significantly reduced from current levels. The report maps potential raninfall and temperature change and combines it with information about native vegetation in the region to produce mapping of potential vulnerability of the vegetation.

The following maps (drawn from the report’s information) illustrate the modelled impacts of climate change at 2050 under the RCP 8.5 carbon emissions scenario. This is what might occur with the current trajectory of emissions, with long term global temperature increase headed towards 3 degrees and more.

The following maps illustrate the modelled impacts of climate change at 2050 under the RCP 4.5 scenario. This is what might be achieved if significant reductions in carbon emissions from the current trajectory are achieved, with global temperature increases limited to perhaps around 1.5-2 degrees.

Challenges

Climate projections for our region indicate that temperatures will continue to increase, with less frosts, rainfall will continue to decline, and we can expect more extreme weather events including bush fire weather and heavy rainfall events. Sea levels are expected to continue rising.

The Port Phillip and Western Port region can expect:

More frequent and longer heat-waves which can impact human health and built infrastructure
More bushfire weather with increased severity and frequency of grass fires
More heavy rainfall events resulting in flash flooding that will impact and disrupt businesses and commuters, with flow on effects for tourism and the economy
Extreme weather events including severe storms that will impact people, businesses and built infrastructure
Poor air quality associated with increased severity and duration of bushfires and worsening air pollution levels associated with a hotter climate
Ongoing sea level rise with associated coastal erosion and coastal flooding that will impact natural areas, as well as private and public assets including jetties and roads.

Our region has certain characteristics and driving forces that set it apart from other regions in Victoria. We have a large population, high numbers of vulnerable people and a large ageing population. Population density is increasing and our community is culturally diverse. As a large city we have high resource and energy demands, as well as a rapidly growing built environment with associated infrastructure needs. Our region contains a high percentage of the state’s jobs (expected to reach 80% by 2046). It’s the centre for much of our state-wide infrastructure and many of our state and national businesses. Our region includes many small businesses as well as national and international businesses. It is also where major transport hubs are located; including airports, seaports and central train and bus stations. Despite our population density and large urbanised area, the region supplies significant amounts of agricultural and horticultural products to Victoria and beyond.

Geographically our region is diverse – we have coastlines that are natural as well as built up, volcanic plains and grasslands in the west, forests and woodlands on the eastern fringes, agricultural lands, rivers, creeks and two bays, as well as some areas of state and national parks.

Some climate change challenges are increased by our large urban area. For example, our region has less green space per person than other regions with significant pressures on our parks and natural areas. Built up areas exacerbate flash flooding and intensify the urban heat island effect. A hotter climate and more frequent heat-waves will increase urban heat impacts and significantly affect people’s health, particularly in heat-vulnerable communities. It will also affect biodiversity in urban environments, such as increasing tree mortality and changes in the composition of heat-sensitive flora and fauna. Impermeable urban infrastructure such as roads and rooftops increase heat-gain and affects the quality and volume of stormwater entering the catchment system.

Climate change is likely to be making obsolete and perilous the trade-offs between development and conservation used in previous ‘balanced decision-making’.

Directions and targets for the future

A Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Greater Melbourne is being developed to identify and prioritise actions in this region for the next five years. The strategy takes a ‘systems approach’, i.e. looking at the whole system to reveal connections and implications of events and actions. Action areas in the strategy will include:

Supporting and building capability in business and vulnerable industries
Supporting climate resilient service delivery, such as protecting staff and volunteers in weather extremes
Increasing and enhancing the natural environment, urban green spaces and parks in recognition of the role of vegetation in buffering weather extremes and supporting society well-being
Improving monitoring and evaluation to better understand the emerging risks and ways to address them
Solving specific problems in at-risk locations such as areas of the coast and the urban fringes.

Urban cooling and greening, including increasing the urban canopy cover, are also identified as priorities in the implementation of Plan Melbourne and in Living Melbourne: Our Metropolitan Urban Forest. An increase in urban greening innovations, such as green roofs and walls, are expected to be achieved by becoming part of Environmentally Sustainable Design credentials of new buildings and other structures.

To help achieve net zero carbon emissions, opportunities exist to undertake major revegetation programs that will sequester carbon from the atmosphere and also have additional benefits for biodiversity, cooling, waterway health and land management. Similarly, opportunities for capture and storage of ‘blue carbon’ in the wetland, coastal, estuarine and marine environments of the region could have multiple benefits. More or better ways for capturing and storing carbon in soil are also expected to emerge, and may offer opportunities for agricultural industries.

Regional Catchment Strategy targets

The following targets, relevant to natural resource management in this region, will contribute to mitigating and adapting to climate change.

Progress toward these targets will be monitored primarily by using quantitative and qualitative information developed and published by the Victorian Government, water corporations and various other sectors and organisations involved in carbon emission reduction and climate adaptation.

Target 15.1 – Carbon emissions

2021

At 2019, Victoria’s greenhouse gas emissions were 24.8% below 2005 levels. At 2021, Victorian Government policy is in place to drive improvements to net zero emissions.

By 2030

Victoria’s greenhouse gas emissions have reduced to 45-50% below 2005 levels. Urban water corporations have made significant reductions to their net carbon emissions. A path is agreed for the agriculture sector to manage its emissions.

By 2050

Victoria has achieved net zero emissions. From the natural resource management sector, all water corporations have achieved net zero emissions. The agriculture sector has contributed to the achievement of this economy-wide net zero emissions target.

Target 15.2 – Cooling, greening Melbourne

2015

Total tree canopy and shrub cover for metropolitan Melbourne was:
– Western 15%
– Northern 24%
– Inner 18%
– Southern 34%
– Inner South-East 39%
– Eastern 44%.
The 32 metropolitan councils committed to achieving a cooler, greener Melbourne and setting targets to increase this cover.

By 2030

Total tree canopy and shrub cover for metropolitan Melbourne areas has increased to at least:
– Western 20%
– Northern 29%
– Inner 23%
– Southern 39%
– Inner South-East 44%
– Eastern 49%.

By 2050

Total tree canopy and shrub cover for metropolitan Melbourne areas has increased to at least:
– Western 30%
– Northern 39%
– Inner 33%
– Southern 50%
– Inner South-East 50%
– Eastern 50%.

Target 15.3 – Climate change adaptation

2021

Knowledge of likely climate change impacts is increasing and technologies / actions for adaptation are emerging and being trialed. Significant climate change adaptation planning is under way within all levels of government, the private sector and communities.

By 2030

Climate change adaptation has generally progressed from planning to implementation across all sectors and is considered routine practice. Adaptation technologies and new approaches continue to evolve.

By 2050

Government, organisations, communities and individuals have responded effectively to the challenges of climate change, minimising the negative impacts on ecological, social and economic well-being.

Partner organisations

The following organisations formally support the pursuit of the visions and targets for climate change. They have agreed to provide leadership and support to help achieve optimum results with their available resources, in ways such as:

Fostering partnerships and sharing knowledge, experiences and information with other organisations and the community
Seeking and securing resources for the area and undertaking work that will contribute to achieving the visions and targets
Assisting with monitoring and reporting on the condition of the area.

Victorian Government

Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (DEECA)
Melbourne Water
Parks Victoria
Environment Protection Authority Victoria (EPA)
Victorian Planning Authority
Victorian Fisheries Authority
Trust for Nature
Sustainability Victoria

Greater Western Water
Yarra Valley Water
South East Water
South Gippsland Water
Westernport Water
Southern Rural Water
Phillip Island Nature Parks
Zoos Victoria

Local Government

Association of Bayside Municipalities
Hume City Council
City of Whittlesea
Brimbank City Council
Moonee Valley City Council
Wyndham City
Moorabool Shire Council
Hobsons Bay City Council
Macedon Ranges Shire Council
City of Melbourne
Monash City Council
Kingston City Council
City of Port Phillip
City of Casey
Cardinia Shire Council
Baw Baw Shire Council

City of Greater Geelong
Maroondah City Council
Bayside City Council
Glen Eira City Council
City of Greater Dandenong
Whitehorse City Council
City of Stonnington
Knox City Council
South Gippsland Shire Council
Bass Coast Shire Council
Eastern Region Pest Animal Network
Western Alliance for Greenhouse Action
Northern Alliance for Greenhouse Action
South East Councils Climate Change Alliance
Eastern Alliance for Greenhouse Action

Traditional Owners

Wadawurrung Traditional Owners Aboriginal Corporation

Bunurong Land Council Aboriginal Corporation

Non Government

The Nature Conservancy
Conservation Volunteers Australia
Gardens for Wildlife Victoria
Native Fish Australia (Vic)
Victoria Walks
GippsDairy
Western Port Seagrass Partnership

Victorian National Parks Association
OzFish Unlimited
Mt Rothwell Biodiversity Centre / Odonata
Marine Mammal Foundation
Dolphin Research Institute
Birdlife Australia
The People and Parks Foundation
Habitat Restoration Fund

Community

Middle Yarra Landcare Network
Port Phillip EcoCentre
Werribee River Association
Friends of Lower Kororoit Creek Inc
Federation for Environment and Horticulture in the Macedon Ranges
Upper Deep Creek Landcare Network
Jacksons Creek EcoNetwork
Greening of Riddell
Friends of Emu Bottom Wetlands Reserve
Friends of Daly Nature Reserve
Deep Creek Landcare Group
Riddells Creek Landcare Group
Newham and District Landcare Group
Merri Creek Management Committee
Darebin Creek Management Committee
NatureWest
Little River Community Landcare Inc
Yarra Ranges Landcare Network
Northern Yarra Landcare Network
Nillumbik Landcare Network
Nangana Landcare Network
Johns Hill Landcare Group
Gippsland Threatened Species Action Group

Bass Coast Landcare Network
Bass Valley Landcare Group
French Island Landcare Group
South Gippsland Landcare Network
Loch-Nyora Landcare Group
Mt. Lyall Landcare Group
Poowong & District Landcare Group
Triholm Landcare Group
Friends of Dandenong Valley Parklands
Kooyongkoot Alliance
Friends of Olinda Creek
Abbotsford Riverbankers Inc
Rewilding Stonnington
Cardinia Environment Coalition
Mornington Peninsula Landcare Network
Main Creek Catchment Landcare Group
Merricks Coolart Catchment Landcare Group
Red Hill South Landcare Group
Phillip Island Landcare Group
Western Port Catchment Landcare Network
Westernport Swamp Landcare Group
Mornington Peninsula Koala Conservation

Add your organisation as a supporter and partner

If your organisation supports these directions and targets and wishes to be listed as a partner organisation, you can request to be listed as a partner organisation. Adding your organisation to this list will:

enable your organisation to list one or more priority projects in the Prospectus which will describe how your priority project will pursue the targets of this Regional Catchment Strategy and potentially make your organisation’s project more attractive to investors by using the strategy to highlight its relevance and value
demonstrate your commitment to a healthy and sustainable environment
demonstrate the level of community engagement and support for this work.

Have your organisation listed as a supporter and partner

Priority projects to move forward

Priority projects

There are significant ongoing programs and initiatives undertaken by many organisations in this region that are enhancing our response to climate change and are priorities to continue. These include programs led by Councils, Melbourne Water, Parks Victoria, the Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, community groups and non-Government organisations.

In addition, there are project proposals that, if funded and implemented, can contribute to achieving the visions and targets for climate change. Potential projects include:

Measuring what matters proposed by the Bass Coast Landcare Network
Greening the Pipeline led by Melbourne Water
Regional Reserves Climate Resilience proposed by the Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Action (DEECA)
Victorian Climate Resilient Councils proposed by the Western Alliance for Greenhouse Action
Western Port Biosphere Blue Carbon proposed by the Mornington Peninsula and Western Port Biosphere Foundation.

A list of project proposals across the region and their key details can be viewed on the Prospectus section of this website.

View more priority projects in the Prospectus

Propose a new priority project

As part of the ongoing development and refinement of this Regional Catchment Strategy, additional priority projects may be considered for inclusion in the Prospectus.

If your organisation supports the directions and targets for climate change, and has a project it would like highlighted and supported in this Regional Catchment Strategy, please submit a Prospectus Project Proposal.

Submit a Prospectus Project Proposal